Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities

This paper studies the impact of product and labour market structural reforms and the effects of their joint implementation with alternative debt consolidation strategies. The set-up is a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Greek economy. The results show that structural reforms produce important long-run GDP gains that materialize earlier, the faster the reforms are implemented. When implemented jointly with fiscal consolidations, structural reforms may amplify the short-run costs of fiscal tightening. The GDP dynamics depend on the fiscal instrument used for public debt consolidation. In the long run, however, there are complementarity gains irrespective of the fiscal instrument used.     

How did investor‐state dispute settlement get a bad rap? Blame it on NAFTA,of course

In the short history of the US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) programme, there have been no instances of dispute settlement cases initiated against the United States by firms from BIT countries. The NAFTA experience changed that. Where other studies have only hinted at the reasons for NAFTA controversies, this paper makes clear three causal factors: (i) changing patterns and intensity of FDI, (ii) the application of those rules to developed countries amid those changing FDI patterns and (iii) ambiguities in ISDS rules themselves. The paper explores these and traces the ways in which lessons of the NAFTA have been instrumental in changing the pursuit of investment protection agreements. BITs used to be uncontroversial, but the NAFTA focused attention on reforms to ISDS that maintain the utility of BITs in the governance of FDI, without creating a legal structure for simply challenging the state.     

Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt in advanced economies. This paper calculates endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction function to growing debt has the “fiscal fatigue” property (a loosening fiscal effort makes the primary balance insufficient to support rising debt) at high debt levels. The combination of this feature of the primary balance reaction function with the market interest rate reaction to growing debt determines the government debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. An application to OECD countries over the period 1985 – 2013 with a model-based risk-premium shows that current debt limits are high for most of the OECD thanks to particularly low risk-free interest rates. It also shows for some countries that current debt levels are not sustainable without a change in government behaviour. Most importantly, the framework illustrates the state contingent nature of debt limits and therefore the vulnerability of governments to a change in macroeconomic conditions and to market reactions. Last, computations with an estimated interest rate reaction to public debt illustrate that debt limits are lower in the euro area than in other countries because of a sharper market interest rate reaction to rising debt.     

The ECFA and its expected effect on cross-strait trade and investment: a Taiwanese perspective

To come to terms with the realization of ASEAN+1, Taiwan had concluded with mainland China a special free trade agreement (FTA), the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in June 2010. This framework agreement provides an early harvest agreement of near-term tariff elimination, including detailed product schedules for goods and services from each side, with the final shape of fuller trade liberalization in goods and services taking years to negotiate and realize. The conclusion of the ECFA has been considered as a major breakthrough in cross-strait talks and economic relationships, even though it is by no means free from controversies inside Taiwan. The authors are therefore motivated by hot debates in Taiwan to reflect on the expected trade effect of the ECFA by taking into account the factor of cross-strait global production networks. In particular, we examine with a proposed model and statistical robustness, the trend of Taiwan-based firms' localization in mainland China, driven in part by constant movements in global production networks, which generates complicated and dynamic relationships between Taiwan's investment-induced trade and structural shift in Taiwan's exports to mainland China. Based on our empirical findings, we reflect on the conventional views on the trade effect of the free trade agreement. The results of our analyses tend to support a cautious view about the trade effect of the ECFA. Without denying the significance of the ECFA and deepening cross-strait economic relationships, we argue that the impact of the ECFA should be interpreted in a wider context than just the trade perspective, as the conventional wisdom and the existing evaluations suggested.     

A sectoral analysis of the financial instability hypothesis

Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) is applied to various North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups, and it is found that some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others. Minsky categorized firms based on the relationship between cash flow and debt service requirements: hedge finance units, whose operating revenues are adequate to service current interest and principal on their debt; speculative finance units, which can meet interest payments but cannot pay down principal; and Ponzi finance units, which cannot meet current interest payments. The FIH is related to, as well as supportive of, Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory, because interest rates are negatively correlated with the proportion and market value of speculative firms in several sectors.     

托辊皮带机跑偏的原因分析及解决办法

托辊皮带机跑偏的原因分析和解决方法。     

Infrastructure,returns to scale and sovereign debt

This paper explores the nexus between the issue of sovereign debt and investment in infrastructure, emphasizing the case of economies of scale. The focus is on debt contracts that are incentive compatible. It is shown that public and private financial institutions may need to lend amounts above some threshold to force the borrowing sovereign to take full advantage of any economies of scale that may be present. Low levels of lending may or may not result in default. Sufficiently high amounts of lending may be needed to ensure repayment and may prove to be mutually beneficial.     

高密度电法在地基塌陷区勘察中的应用

通过高密度电法快速采集地电断面结构信息，准确反映不良地质体的二维分布情况。为查明地基塌陷的诱发原因和地基处理提供了依据。通过实例证明该方法工作效率高、信息量大及在实际应用中的良好效果。     

法制环境、金融发展与企业长期债务融资

本文分别从长期负债比率和债务期限结构两个方面,从法与金融的视角考察了我国地区法制环境、金融发展以及它们之间的相互作用对上市公司长期债务融资的影响。研究结果表明:我国地区法制环境的改善并不能使上市公司获得更多的长期债务融资,地区法制环境和金融发展的水平越高,上市公司获得的长期债务融资越少,然而在法制环境比较好的地区,金融发展水平的提高却有助于上市公司获得更多的长期债务融资。本文的研究结果不仅丰富了国内外的研究成果,而且有助于我们更加深入地了解我国上市公司长期债务融资偏低的制度因素。     

运用契合原则和引导原则增强大学生思想政治教育实效性

高校进一步增强大学生思想政治教育的实效性,就要在教育过程中贯彻契合原则与引导原则。要牢牢把握大学生思想政治教育的基本目标,调查研究大学生思想品德的基本状况,巧妙进行教育过程中的自然街接与合理过渡,引导大学生健康成长。